I never really paid attention to residential natural gas prices, focusing on Henry Hub and basis pricing. Nevertheless, while examining EIA datasets, the residential data offers an interesting contrast to the other market prices.
Unlike Henry Hub, residential pricing has a large positive swing in the summer months related to increased demand from power facilities. The seasonal swings have increased in magnitude with the addition of new gas-fired power plants. In the 1980’s – 1990’s, the summer increase was approximately $4/mcf (real dollars). The past decade has seen this increase to $8-10/mcf (real dollars), while gas prices have remained low. Below is an animation showing the relationships over time.
Real $ calculated to May 2020 using BLS CPI
Sources: EIA, BLS, Mudrock Energy